Pronóstico 10% menos impacto climático

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AW | 2017 03 03 11:30 | ENVIRONMENT

 Las aerolíneas podrían reducir el impacto climático en un 10% haciendo estos pequeños cambios en los vuelos


Las aerolíneas podrían reducir su impacto climático en hasta un 10% haciendo pequeños cambios en algunas rutas de vuelo, según ha demostrado la investigación de científicos de la Universidad de Reading.

Su nuevo estudio muestra que las aerolíneas podrían tener un gran impacto positivo en el cambio climático al alterar las rutas de vuelo para evitar áreas donde las emisiones tienen el mayor impacto. Los cambios serían comparativamente pequeños, resultando en sólo alrededor de un aumento de 1% en los costos operativos.

Un equipo de investigación internacional, entre ellos el profesor Keith Shine y la doctora Emma Irvine del Departamento de Meteorología de Reading, junto con expertos del Instituto DLR de Física Atmosférica en Alemania, Eurocontrol en Bruselas y el Centro Internacional de Investigaciones Climáticas y Ambientales (CICERO) en Oslo Sus resultados hoy en la revista Environmental Research Letters.

El Profesor Shine, Profesor Regio de Meteorología y Ciencia del Clima, dijo: “El enrutamiento climático de los aviones tiene un potencial emocionante para disminuir el impacto climático de la aviación, sin la necesidad de rediseño costoso de aeronaves, motores y aeropuertos”.


“Con una investigación más específica, podría convertirse en una realidad en los próximos 10 años”.

Volker Grewe, del Instituto DLR de Física Atmosférica y profesor de la Universidad Tecnológica de Delft, declaró: “Alrededor del 5% del cambio climático provocado por el hombre es causado por la aviación mundial y se espera que este número aumente, Este impacto podría reducirse si los vuelos fueran dirigidos a evitar las regiones donde las emisiones tienen el mayor impacto”.

“La aviación es diferente de muchos otros sectores, ya que su impacto climático es causado en gran parte por los efectos que no son del CO2, como las estelas de condensación y la formación de ozono, que varían regionalmente y, aprovechando esto, una reducción del clima de la aviación Impacto es factible”.

“Nuestro estudio analizó la viabilidad de una estrategia de enrutamiento de este tipo, teniendo en cuenta un conjunto representativo de situaciones meteorológicas para el invierno y el verano, así como las cuestiones de seguridad y optimizando todo el tráfico aéreo transatlántico en esos días”.

Gran beneficio para un costo pequeño

Utilizando cálculos de emisiones, funciones de cambio climático y simulaciones de tráfico aéreo, el equipo de investigación evaluó 85 rutas alternativas (17 horizontales y 5 verticales) para cada uno de los aproximadamente 400 vuelos que cruzan el Atlántico Norte en cualquier dirección cada día.

El Profesor Grewe dijo: “Nuestros resultados muestran que bajo condiciones y regulaciones apropiadas, el enrutamiento optimizado para el clima rentable tiene el potencial de reducir significativamente el impacto del clima de la aviación”.

“Los resultados para cinco invierno representativo y tres situaciones representativas de verano muestran el potencial de reducir el impacto climático de la aviación en aproximadamente un 10% a un nivel relativamente bajo. Bajos costos del 1% “.

El estudio mostró que, en todas las condiciones meteorológicas, se podrían encontrar rutas que redujeran el impacto climático a bajo costo, aunque la intensidad en la reducción del impacto climático varió.

“Aunque los aumentos de costos fueron bajos, probablemente constituyen una barrera para la implementación, ya que el retorno de la inversión de la aerolínea también es en este orden de magnitud”, dijo el profesor Grewe. “Sin embargo, con una medida basada en el mercado, que incluye también estos efectos distintos del CO2, los costos de la optimización climática podrían ser intercambiados con los costos de las emisiones equivalentes de CO2. Y las líneas aéreas.”

Cuatro obstáculos que hay que superar

Sin embargo, el estudio planteó preguntas y preocupaciones potenciales, con respecto al nivel de madurez, incertidumbres científicas y cuestiones políticas y éticas.

El profesor Grewe dijo: “El concepto de enrutamiento óptimo del clima no es lo suficientemente maduro para ser implementado directamente en el mundo real, básicamente por cuatro razones”.

“En primer lugar, el cálculo de las funciones de cambio climático debe ser robusto y lo suficientemente rápido como para que sea operativo, y debemos tener una gran confianza en las condiciones meteorológicas pronosticadas. Permitió que, en un lapso de tiempo escogido, se enfríe el clima global más que el CO2 adicional emitido por los calentamientos optimizados para el clima”.

“En tercer lugar, hay que determinar las repercusiones en la gestión del tránsito aéreo, aunque las cuestiones de seguridad no limitan los resultados del corredor de vuelo del Atlántico Norte, podrían limitar la aplicabilidad en zonas de mayor densidad del tráfico aéreo y, por último, O medidas alternativas, incluidos estos efectos distintos del CO2, son necesarios para fomentar el enrutamiento óptimo para el clima”.

“Nuestro estudio muestra claramente los beneficios en la reducción del impacto del clima, si estas barreras pueden ser superadas.” airgways-icon-aw

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Forecast 10% less climate impact

Airlines could reduce climate impact by 10% by making these small changes to flights

Airlines could reduce their climate impact by up to 10% by making small changes to some flight routes, research by University of Reading scientists has shown.

Their new study shows airlines could make a large positive impact on climate change by altering flight routes to avoid areas where emissions have the largest impact. The changes would be comparatively small – resulting in only around a 1% increase in operating costs.

An international research team, including Professor Keith Shine and Dr Emma Irvine from Reading’s Meteorology Department, alongside experts from the DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Germany, Eurocontrol in Brussels, and the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Oslo, published their results today in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

Professor Shine, Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science, said: “Climate-friendly routing of aircraft has an exciting potential to decrease the climate impact of aviation, without the need for costly redesign of aircraft, their engines, and airports”.

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“With more targeted research, it could become a reality in the next 10 years.”

Lead author Volker Grewe, from the DLR-Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Professor at the Delft University of Technology, said: “Around 5% of man-made climate change is caused by global aviation, and this number is expected to rise. However, this impact could be reduced if flights were routed to avoid regions where emissions have the largest impact”.

“Aviation is different from many other sectors, since its climate impact is largely caused by non-CO2 effects, such as contrails and ozone formation. These non-CO2 effects vary regionally, and, by taking advantage of that, a reduction of aviation’s climate impact is feasible”.

“Our study looked at how feasible of such a routing strategy is. We took into account a representative set of weather situations for winter and summer, as well as safety issues, and optimised all trans-Atlantic air traffic on those days.”

Large benefit for small cost

Using calculations of emissions, climate change functions, and air traffic simulations, the research team evaluated 85 alternative routes (17 horizontal and five vertical) for each of the roughly 400 flights crossing the North Atlantic in either direction each day.

Professor Grewe said: “Our results show that under appropriate framework conditions and regulations, cost-effective climate-optimized routing has the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact from aviation”.

“We adopted a detailed modelling framework to estimate the benefits and costs of air traffic routing options over the North Atlantic. The results for five representative winter and three representative summer situations show the potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation by roughly 10% at relatively low costs of 1%.”

The study showed that, in all-weather situations, routes could be found that reduced the climate impact at low costs, though the intensity in climate impact reduction varied.

“Although cost increases were low, they probably constitute a barrier to implementation, since the airline’s return on investment is also in this order of magnitude,” said Professor Grewe. “However, with a market-based measure in place, which includes also these non-CO2 effects, costs for climate-optimized routing could be traded with costs for equivalent CO2 emissions. That would allow climate-optimal routing to become beneficial for both climate and airlines.”

Four hurdles that must be overcome

However, the study raised questions and potential concerns, regarding the maturity level, scientific uncertainties, and political and ethical questions.

Professor Grewe said: “The concept of climate-optimal routing is not mature enough to be directly implemented in the real world, basically for four reasons.

“First, the calculation of the climate-change functions must be robust, and fast enough to become operational, and we must have high confidence in the forecast weather conditions. Second, consensus needs to be achieved on to what extent additional contrail formation should be allowed, which – over a chosen time span – cools the global climate more than the additional CO2 emitted by climate-optimized routing warms”.

“Third, the implications on air traffic management have to be identified. Although safety issues do not limit the results for the North Atlantic flight corridor, they might limit the applicability in areas of higher air traffic densities. And finally, a market-based measure or alternative measures, including these non-CO2 effects, are needed to foster climate-optimal routing”.

“Our study clearly shows the benefits in climate impact reduction, if these barriers can be overcome.” A\W

Ξ A I R G W A Y S Ξ
SOURCE: Phys.org
DBk: Businesstimes.com / Getty Images
AW-POST: 201703031130AR

A\W   A I R G W A Y S ®

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