AW | 2017 03 24 01:57 | INDUSTRY
El Boeing 797X cubrirá probablemente la gama de 220-260 asientos. La gama del diseño será 4.500-5.000 millas náuticas. Las aeronaves podrían desbloquear un potencial de ingresos de 150 mil millones de dólares
Uno de los desarrollos de Boeing es el Boeing 797X. Desde que el Airbus A321 y el Airbus A321NEO han superado con éxito a los Boeing 737-900ER y Boeing 737 MAX 9 por un amplio margen, analistas, profesionales de la industria y entusiastas de la aviación han estado esperando a que Boeing no sólo pueda competir Con el Airbus A321, sino también cómo van a reemplazar de manera eficaz y eficiente los aviones más pequeños de cuerpo ancho.
En el pasado, se ha visto cómo Boeing estaría llenando la brecha que dejó y cómo el posicionamiento del producto de cuerpo estrecho de Boeing es una de las causas de la incapacidad de Boeing para competir con el Airbus A321 y su incapacidad para proporcionar un reemplazo para El avión de cuerpo ancho más pequeño.
De los artículos enlazados arriba, se puede observar que la discusión sobre un avión MoM (Medio del Mercado) o NMA (New Midsize Airplane) no es nueva, y ha mantenido a los analistas, así como Boeing ocupado durante bastante tiempo.
Capacidad del Boeing 797X
Una de las primeras cosas que debe ser notado es que los requisitos para una NMA han estado cambiando hacia un principio, ya que Boeing admitió la necesidad de un avión de este tipo no hace mucho tiempo. Al principio, existía la posibilidad de que una aeronave de gama media se extendiera desde la capacidad de un MAX 8 hasta el Boeing 757-200. Para Boeing, esto resolvería dos problemas, siendo el primero la edad del concepto Boeing 737 que es difícil de optimizar y el segundo problema es la limitada capacidad del Boeing 737-900ER y del Boeing 737 MAX 9 para competir con los homólogos de Airbus.
Boeing, sin embargo ha optado por un Boeing 737 MAX 10. Esta decisión es comprensible ya que el Boeing 737 MAX 10 es una solución relativamente barata que podría ver la entrada de servicio antes que un diseño totalmente nuevo. El MAX 10, prácticamente igual que toda la familia MAX, es un avión de reserva que debería añadir presión sobre los precios a Airbus y mantener algo del mercado. Esto sería beneficioso para Boeing cuando comience a desarrollar nuevas familias de aviones que cubran el segmento de pasillo único o el mercado de NMA.
Otra razón por la cual Boeing no está cambiando su producto de cuerpo estrecho es el hecho de que Bombardier compite fuertemente con Boeing en el lado inferior de la gama de productos. Mover a la familia significaría que Bombardier se quedaría sin mayor competencia. Actualmente Boeing es capaz de descuentos en su avión más pequeño para competir con Bombardier, esto le da a Bombardier una carrera por su dinero.
Así que Boeing parece haber elegido centrarse en el mercado NMA y dejar los retos de la sustitución MAX para más adelante.
La capacidad del Boeing 797X es probable esté ubicada en el segmento entre 220 pasajeros y 260 pasajeros, o posiblemente 270.
Distancia
La gama del jet de 220 pasajeros en junio de 2015 se preveía para ser 4.500nm. Esto situaría la aeronave en territorio del Boeing 757 en términos de capacidad, pero con una capacidad de alcance ligeramente superior. La gama ahora se espera que esté entre 4.500 y 5000nm. En combinación con la nueva banda de capacidad, esto significa que el Boeing 797 es efectivamente un reemplazo natural para el Boeing 757 y Boeing 767. En lugar de mirar hacia abajo para cubrir el Boeing 737 MAX con el Boeing 797, Boeing ha buscado y parece estar planeando para cubrir el espacio del mercado del Boeing 767.
Posicionamiento Boeing 797X
El posicionamiento del Boeing 797 se hace más claro si lo marcamos en un diagrama de carga.
El mercado
Definir el potencial del mercado es difícil, no sólo porque no puede resumir las órdenes de todas las variantes Boeing 757 y Boeing 767 y decir que es el potencial de mercado del Boeing 797. El Boeing 797 no será capaz de capturar todo el mercado. Se calcula llegar a un potencial de aproximadamente 2.000 aviones. En estos cálculos, agregamos las ventas de las versiones de rango extendido del Boeing 767, así, la razón es que el Boeing 787 no es realmente un avión tipo 767. La gama del Boeing 787-8 supera ampliamente el rango de las variantes 767ER. Boeing tampoco está muy dispuesto a vender el Boeing 787-8, ya que los márgenes de beneficio no son lo suficientemente atractivos para construir el avión. Así que en el futuro se ofrecerá el Boeing 797 a los clientes que no requieren la gama de Boeing 787. Los clientes que requieren la gama de Boeing 787 se ofrecerá el 787-9.
Hace más de un año, John Wojick dijo a Aviation Week que esperaba que un avión NMA vendiera fácilmente más de 2.000 unidades. Esta cifra tiene en cuenta la creciente demanda de viajes aéreos, pero probablemente también una posición de punto dulce para el Boeing 797 para capturar la mayoría del mercado NMA y potencialmente los clientes delAirbus A330-800NEO que no requieren la capacidad de alcance de la A330NEO.
Eficiencia
Conseguir el diseño correcto es importante, porque sobrediseño llevará a mayores costos de operación para los clientes, pero también dará lugar a mayores costos de desarrollo y producción. Además, el diseño excesivo, por ejemplo, el ala resultará en un mayor peso que requiere motores más grandes, que posteriormente requiera de nuevo un ala más grande.
Al igual que con cualquier aeronave, la eficiencia es uno de los principales impulsores del éxito comercial. El avión probablemente hará uso de un ala ligera de alta eficiencia similar a los del Boeing 787 y Boeing 777X. El fuselaje podría ser diseñado a partir de materiales compuestos, pero podría ser una de las cosas que podrían caer para mantener bajos los costos de desarrollo y los precios de venta. Una cosa que parece ser cierto es que el avión será un avión de pasillo doble con una configuración de 2-3-2 asientos.
Para los motores, es importante dimensionarlos correctamente. Con los desarrollos de Trent XWB, Trent 1000 TEN, CFM LEAP 1A / B / C, serie GEnx, GE90X y PW1100G, los desarrolladores de turbofan han estado ocupados durante los últimos años en una amplia gama de empuje. Así que incluso si Boeing hubiera querido lanzar el Boeing 797 antes, probablemente no sería posible ya que los desarrolladores estaban trabajando en otros productos.
Para el Boeing 797X, creo que un rango de empuje de 40,000-50,000 lbf debería ser suficiente. Más interesante será ver quién va a suministrar esos turbofans. Hay una alta probabilidad de que más de 1 desarrollador proporcionará los turbofans. De esta manera el potencial del Boeing 797X será compartido entre varios desarrolladores, pero el Boeing 797X será un producto más fuerte donde los clientes pueden seleccionar un turbofan preferido. Para Pratt & Whitney, habrá ocasiones de transferir el conocimiento del turbofan adaptado del PW1100 más pequeño usado en el Airbus A320NEO al mercado del pasillo gemelo. Para PW, esto sería enorme ya que han sido expulsados del mercado de pasillos gemelos hace mucho tiempo. CFM podría entrar con un turbofan más grande similar a la familia CFM LEAP utilizada en el Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus A320NEO y Comac C919. Rolls Royce ha comenzado a trabajar en un turbofán Rolls Royce Advance, el cual debería ser capaz de entrar en servicio entre 2020 y 2025, mientras que planea un Rolls Royce UltraFan, que será de servicio después de 2025. Así, mientras que CFM y PW tratarán de ampliar su Turbofan para cumplir con el rango de empuje requerido, Rolls Royce tendrá que bajar de la Trent XWB. Sin embargo, los tres desarrolladores de turbofan estarán deseando un pedazo del pastel.
The challenge of the Boeing 797 market
The Boeing 797X will probably cover the range of 220-260 seats. The design range will be 4,500-5,000 nautical miles. The aircraft could unlock a potential revenue of $ 150 thousand millions of dollars
One of the developments of Boeing or, rather, future developments – is the Boeing 797X. Since the Airbus A321 and Airbus A321NEO have successfully outperformed the Boeing 737-900ER and Boeing 737 MAX 9 by a wide margin, analysts, industry professionals and aviation enthusiasts have been waiting for Boeing not only to be able to compete With the Airbus A321, but also how they will effectively and efficiently replace smaller, wide-body aircraft.
In the past, Boeing would be filling the gap it has left and how the positioning of Boeing’s narrow-body product is one of the causes of Boeing’s inability to compete with the Airbus A321 and its inability to provide a replacement for The smallest wide-body aircraft.
It can be seen that the discussion about a MoM (New Market) or New Midsize Airplane is not new, and has kept analysts as well as Boeing busy for quite some time.
In this article, I will be seeing what we already know about the Boeing 797X. I will focus on what your general specification will be like and what you should be able to. In a separate article, I’ll take a closer look at the market potential of an airplane of this type.
Capacity
One of the first things to note is that the requirements for an NMA have been shifting upwards, as Boeing has admitted the need for such an aircraft not so long ago. At the outset, it was possible for a mid-range aircraft to extend from the MAX 8 capacity to the Boeing 757-200. For Boeing, this would solve two problems, the first being the age of the Boeing 737 concept that is difficult to optimize and the second problem is the limited capacity of the Boeing 737-900ER and the Boeing 737 MAX 9 to compete with Airbus counterparts.
Boeing, however has chosen to explore the possibility of a Boeing 737 MAX 10, which is likely to be launched by year-end. This decision is understandable since the Boeing 737 MAX 10 is a relatively cheap solution that could see service entry sooner than an all-new design. In my view the MAX 10, pretty much just like the entire MAX family, is a placeholder aircraft that should add pricing pressure to Airbus and keep some of the market. This would be beneficial to Boeing when it starts developing new aircraft families that cover either the single aisle segment or the NMA market.
Another reason why Boeing is not shifting up its narrow body product is the fact that Bombardier is heavily competing with Boeing on the lower side of the product range. Moving the family up would mean that Bombardier is left without major competition. Currently Boeing is able to heavily discount its smaller aircraft to compete with Bombardier, this gives Bombardier a run for their money.
So Boeing seems to have chosen to focus on the NMA market and leave the challenges of the MAX replacement for later.
Whereas at first I expected the capacity band to be between 160 and 240 passengers with 3 or 4 variants, the capacity of the Boeing 797X is likely between 220 passengers and 260 passengers, possibly 270.
Range
The range of the 220-passenger jet in June 2015 was envisioned to be 4,500nm. This would place the aircraft in territory of the Boeing 757 in terms of capacity but with a slightly higher range capability. The range is now expected to be between 4,500 and 5000nm. In combination with the new capacity band, this means that the Boeing 797 is effectively a replacement for the Boeing 757 and Boeing 767. Instead of looking down to cover the Boeing 737 MAX with the Boeing 797, Boeing has looked up and seems to be planning to cover the Boeing 767 market space.
Boeing 797X positioning
The positioning of the Boeing 797 becomes clearer if we maket. What can be seen is that, whereas the Airbus A321NEO LR is being actively marketed as a Boeing 757 replacement, it falls in between the MoM space and traditional single-aisle space. The design space for the NMA can be seen and what is interesting to observe is that it is likely not going to be one-on-one replacement of the Boeing 757.
Rather than bringing up a replacement, Boeing seems to be aiming for 1 aircraft with higher range than the Boeing 757-200 and aircraft that is in between the capabilities of the Boeing 767-200 and Boeing 767-300 on one hand and the Extended Range variants on the other. This can also be said differently: The Boeing 797-X with its 2 aircraft is going to cover the Boeing 767-200 and Boeing 767-300 capacity range with a bigger range. By doing so, Boeing is actually going Airbus-style by developing something for which competition has no answer yet.
Market
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THE BOEING 757
Defining the market potential is difficult, not only because you cannot just sum up the orders of all Boeing 757 and Boeing 767 variants and say that is the market potential of the Boeing 797. Both 797 aircraft need to be in a sweet spot, and even then, Boeing will not be able to capture the entire market. If we were going to sum up things anyways then we get to a potential of roughly 2,000 aircraft. In these calculations, we added the sales of the Extended Range versions of the Boeing 767 as well, the reason being that the Boeing 787 is not really a 767-like aircraft. The range of the Boeing 787-8 exceeds the range of the 767ER variants by a wide margin. Boeing is also not very willing to sell the Boeing 787-8, since the profit margins are not attractive enough to build the aircraft. So in the future they will be offering the Boeing 797 to customers that do not require the range of the Boeing 787. Customers that require the range of the Boeing 787 will be offered the 787-9.
Over a year ago, John Wojick told Aviation Week that it expected an NMA aircraft to easily sell over 2,000 units. This figure takes into account growing demand for air travel, but likely also a sweet spot position for the Boeing 797 to capture the majority of the NMA market and potentially Airbus A330-800NEO customers that do not require the range capability of the A330NEO.
Efficiency
Getting the design right is important, because overdesigning will lead to higher operating costs for the customers but will also result in higher development and production costs. Additionally, overdesigning for instance the wing will result in higher weight requiring bigger engines, which subsequently again requires a bigger wing.
Like with any aircraft, efficiency is one of the main drivers of commercial success. The aircraft will likely make use of a high efficiency light-weight wing similar to the ones on the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777X. The fuselage could be designed out of composites, but might be one of the things that might be dropped to keep the development costs and sales prices low. One thing that seems to be certain is that the aircraft will be a twin aisle aircraft with a 2-3-2 seat configuration
For the engines, it is important to size them correctly. With the developments of the Trent XWB, Trent 1000 TEN, CFM LEAP 1A/B/C, GEnx series, GE90X and PW1100G, turbofan developers have been occupied for the past couple of years in a wide range of the thrust spectrum. So even if Boeing would have wanted to launch the Boeing 797 earlier, it probably would not be possible since developers were working on other products.
For the Boeing 797X, a thrust range of 40,000-50,000 lbf should be sufficient. More interesting will be to see who is going to supply those turbofans. There is a high probability that more than 1 developer will be providing the turbofans. This way the potential of the Boeing 797X will be shared between multiple developers, but the Boeing 797X will be a stronger product where customers can select a preferred turbofan. For Pratt & Whitney, there will be chances to transfer the knowledge from the smaller PW1100 geared turbofan used on the Airbus A320NEO to the twin aisle market. For PW, this would be huge since they have been pushed out of the twin aisle market a long time ago. CFM could enter with a bigger turbofan similar to the CFM LEAP family used on the Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus A320NEO and Comac C919. Rolls Royce has started working on a Rolls Royce Advance turbofan, which should be able to enter service between 2020 and 2025, while it plans a Rolls Royce UltraFan, which will be serviceable after 2025. So while CFM and PW will try to scale up their turbofan to meet the required thrust range, Rolls Royce will have to scale down from the Trent XWB. Nevertheless, all three turbofan developers will be wanting a piece of the pie.
Development costs and sales price
Developing an all-new aircraft costs billions, and Boeing has learned a lesson when it developed the Boeing 787 and accumulated billions in development and production costs overruns. That is something that Boeing cannot afford itself once more – not only because it will brittle the company’s credibility as a jet maker but also because it will have little to no space left to make the Boeing 797 a success.
That Boeing really has to get it all right with the Boeing 797 became even clearer when the chairman of Air Lease Corp., Udvar-Hazy, said that airlines want to pay will be between $70 and $80 million. In 2002, the biggest Boeing 757 had a list price of $111 million dollars translated to 2016-dollars while the Boeing 767-200 had list prices of $151 million. Applying discounts of 40% that were common at that time, we get to a price range of $66.6-$90 million. With aircraft designs becoming more and more complex the sales price goes up and the smallest Boeing widebody, the Boeing 787-8, sells for a price that is 30-75%. I think that clearly shows the challenge that lies ahead for Boeing to keep development costs in a predefined range so that it can put a reasonable price tag on the Boeing 797.
Risks
No development is without risk and that also counts for the Boeing 797. A significant risk that Boeing might face is the risk of cost overruns. We have to hope here that Boeing has learned from the Boeing 787 development, not only engineering-wise but also in the sense of financial management and risk transfer to the supply chain.
Other risks include being late to the market, which can be caused by a variety of reasons for instance delays in the design and flight testing process or delays in the engine development. These all can affect the commercial success of the Boeing 797.
Conclusion
All in all, reactions to a Boeing 797 are positive, but the road between designing and making the aircraft a commercial success is a long one. Positive, however, is that Boeing is trying to place the Boeing 797 in a spot where it is hard for Airbus to reach but where there still is an unaddressed demand. Boeing seems to be somewhat letting Airbus claim its crown as having the Boeing 757-200 replacement, while it moves it 2-aircraft family up in the seating range in a spot where legacy carriers as well as low-cost carriers can successfully utilize the Boeing 797. A\W
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SOURCE: Seekingalpha.com
DBk: Boeing.com / Airgways
AW-POST: 201703240157AR
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